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Survivorship Bias - The Misconception: You should focus on the successful if you wish to become successful. The Truth: When failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisible


Survivorship Bias - The true picture for active management is even more bleak than the figures suggest. This is due to Survivorship Bias. Video by @RegisMedia

Survivorship Bias: studying successes, when the critical learning comes from failures. (This is why venture capitalists value failure.) EXAMPLE: WWII bomber armor placement: The holes in the surviving planes reveal the locations that needed the least additional armor. Look at where the survivors are unharmed, he said, and that’s where the bombers are most vulnerable; that’s probably where the planes that didn’t make it back were hit.

Craps against the high-rolling dark siders

How Survivorship Bias Tricks Entrepreneurs

How Survivorship Bias Tricks Entrepreneurs | Our focus on simple success stories obscures the many lessons failure has to teach. | via Bloomberg Businessweek